Traditional methods of visualising and communicating future climate projections are largely ineffective, hindering proactive adaptation. Our research offers a novel solution by operationalising climate projections through dynamic climate storylines and visualising and communicating these storylines through immersive virtual reality. Focusing on Singapore, we use downward counterfactual modelling calibrated with high-resolution climate projections across three Shared Socio-economic Pathways to develop climate storylines from the present until 2100. These storylines specifically address critical risks from sea-level rise, pluvial flooding, and high-impact-low-likelihood events and contextualize these risks for three key Singaporean locales: Marina Bay (a flagship area), Marine Parade (a highly residential area), and Changi Airport (critical infrastructure). Our detailed storylines communicate the probabilities of cascading and compounding risks, facilitating the identification of adaptation solutions and path dependencies. We visualize and communicate our storylines through an accessible, immersive and interactive virtual reality experience. In the experience, users are faced with climate hazards that dynamically evolve according to our set of climate storylines. Users make adaptation decisions that directly shape socio-economic outcomes and future risk trajectories, with choices and their consequences unfolding along realistically embedded policy path dependencies. An intricate, balanced game mechanism provides real-time, multi-criteria feedback via a scoring system that assesses climate risk reduction, economic efficiency and social acceptability. Taken together, our approach presents a significant step forward in operationalising, visualising and communicating scientifically rigorous data on future climate projections to a diverse set of stakeholders.

Authors:
Terry van Gevelt, Singapore Management University, Singapore

About the Presenter(s)
Terry van Gevelt is Associate Professor of Urban Sustainability and Lee Kong Chian Fellow at the College of Integrative Studies, Singapore Management University.

See this presentation on the full schedule – Friday Schedule

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